There are an estimated 167,000 work-related fatalities in the EU-27 every year. About 159,000 are attributable to work-related diseases, of which 74,000 may be linked to workplace exposure to hazardous substances. The Community Strategy 2002-06 called on the Agency to ‘set up a risk observatory’ to ‘anticipate new and emerging risks’. The expert forecast was formulated within this context, from the results of three consecutive questionnaire-based surveys using the Delphi method. Forty-nine experts from 21 European countries participated in this forecast.